Sunday, March 10, 2013

The Foreign Policy threat of Cobra EPISODE I

The Foreign Policy threat of Cobra EPISODE I

When we discuss the nature and threats the United States Military faces we are often bogged down by the “Reality” of the US Military and Foreign policy dimensions and they can sometimes distract from talking about the implications of some of our choices. So for this thought experiment I am choosing COBRA

Why do I pick COBRA? In its run a small town in Missouri, major corporations, its been its own country, overthrown governments, did fake UFO’s, associated with a ninja clan, had an army of robots... it is truly a criminal organization determined to rule the world. So the threat of COBRA represents the Black Swan Foreign Policy threat that can be any threat the US Military needs to be handling.

So I want to lay out a few threats of COBRA to explain some of the things I think people miss out on.

North Korea:
The Crimson Guard Commandos and Extensive Enterprises (through Japanese, Korean, and Chinese Joint Venture subsidiaries) have begun some rudimentary businesses within existing North Korean Business zones. The reality is of course these businesses are part of a front to develop a binary chemical weapon that Cobra plans through its front organization Robca reality to place in homes throughout the United States to terrorize the populace. The first binary agent supply will roll off the assembly line in North Korea soon.

Once it gets off the assembly line in North Korea the US Military isn’t going to be able to stop it and millions of Americans may die as the binary chemical agent renders large sections of American suburbs uninhabitable

The North Korean Government doesn’t know anything. The people in the Chinese Government when they asked The North Koreans about it were given a signal from the North Koreans that the US Could do whatever it wanted to the factory and they wouldn’t complain to much.

So how does the Department of Defense handle it? Do they send in a Joe team? Sending in a Joe team requires a certain kind of intelligence capacity. A cobra defector (if your lucky) which means you need Human Intelligence to either recruit him or find him. A Cobra traitor: which would again require Human Intelligence to do. Try to analyze things going on with Satellite and other data and a nerd in a CIA cubicle?

Each of these prefered solutions require certain investments in the intelligence community. That means you have to hire spooks and/or nerds. If its nerds they need the right nerd tech.

We find out where COBRA’s facility is. So we are put on the clock.

Do we send in a JOE Team? Well the further out you are the more likely the JOE team is to be successful. But if you want the JOE team to be your go to response that means you need to again put certain levels of investment in Intelligence above and beyond that needed to find them. But lets take a more practical solution (Send in Snake Eyes and have him get any intel before we blow it up )

Do you want to send in a Drone? Well if your going to do that there needs to be a drone base in either Japan or South Korea (or possibly a long distance drone ). If you move the drone into South Korea or Japan that means you will likely have problems with the Chinese and North Koreans . Likewise if you have a fighter or Fighter Bomber in the neighborhood you have similar problems. But if its based in the US that puts a time constraint. (And if you want to move a carrier into the neighborhood that puts in time constraints and constraints with dealing with the other powers in the region). The further away you move these bombers/fighter bombers/ or Drones the less surprise and secrecy we have.

The type of Military that can reply to the threat of COBRA will need specific sorts of Diplomatic/Political/and Resource investments. But lets say we don’t try to stop COBRA with our military but instead trust the department of homeland security.

How many extra agents will you need at every point of entry in the US? If you want to rely on Homeland security to stop COBRA your going to have to deploy a much larger amount of manpower (and even larger amount of equipment). So you have to make a choice then: Do I front load the higher cost (with DoD) or do I back load (with Homeland Security)

In the next episode we will discuss COBRA’s Plot to overthrow the government of Venezuela.